If you are reading this, I’m pretty sure you realize it is awards time for the 2023-24 New York theater season.
For Broadway, the season began with the first preview in April 2023 of “Grey House,” Levi Holloway’s theatricalization of any number of fright flicks (more atmospheric like “The Haunting” than scary-gory like “The Evil Dead”).
The last play to open during a mad rush to meet the Tonys cutoff date was “Mother Play,” Paula Vogel’s quasi-autobiographical examination of life with her less-than-maternal mother, which boasts a starry three-person cast of Jessica Lange, Celia Keenan-Bolger, and Jim Parsons.
In between: 9 additional new plays, 5 play revivals, 15 new musicals, 6 musical revivals, and a couple of special events (the magic show “El Mago Pop” and “Melissa Etheridge: My Window,” which was a wonderful addition to the season.)
While I am a voter for the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards, I am not a Tony voter (except for the Regional Theatre Tony Award, which this year is being bestowed on Philadelphia’s Wilma Theater). Still, I’m happy to make predictions, for what they are worth, as to the likely Tony winners. Just please do not make any wagers base on my remarks, because who can read the minds of the actual voters? Anyway, for what it’s worth, my batting average generally runs around 60 percent or thereabouts. So here we go:
BEST NEW MUSICAL
In my view, the best new musical of the season was the Atlantic Theater Company’s Off Broadway production of “Buena Vista Social Club.” I’m hoping its reputed transfer to Broadway will happen this coming fall. But until it does, it is not Tony eligible.
That leaves us with the five actual nominees: “Hell’s Kitchen,” “Illinoise,” “The Outsiders,” “Suffs,” and “Water for Elephants.”
All are strong contenders for various reasons, but I’m thinking that the Tony will go to “Hell’s Kitchen,” Alicia Keys’ semi-autobiographical musical which is full of youthful energy, Keys’ songs, wonderful choreography, and terrific performances that make it rise to the top of the pack.
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
The four nominees are:
“Cabaret,” “Guttenberg,” “Merrily We Roll Along,” and “Tommy.”
“Guttenberg” is mostly fun, thanks to the pairing of Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells as a couple of theater nerds dreaming of hitting the big time with their own show. “Tommy” is an exquisitely executed trip down trippy memory lane. And “Cabaret” captures what, at least in my view, is necessary for any production of this show, the spirit of sleaziness and debauchery of rotting souls just as Naziism was on the rise in Germany. Nevertheless, there is no doubt in my mind that the Tony will go to the revival of “Merrily We Roll Along,” the much loved and often tinkered with George Furth/Stephen Sondheim musical that has finally found its footing under Maria Friedman’s direction and its trio of pitch-perfect, crowd-pleasing lead performers: Jonathan Groff, Lindsay Mendez, and Daniel Radcliffe.
BEST NEW PLAY
The five nominees are:
“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” “Mary Jane,” “Mother Play,” “Prayer for the French Republic,” and “Stereophonic.”
Each of these is well deserving of being singled out – thoughtful, original, and deeply engaging. Of these, however, an almost universal love has been bestowed upon “Stereophonic,” David Adjmi’s play about a rock band dealing with creative and personal challenges during the recording a new album during the mid-1970s. It is my personal favorite among the nominees as well, and I don’t think it’s too much of a leap to suggest this is the one that will take home the Tony.
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
The three nominees are:
“Appropriate,” “An Enemy of the People,” and “Purlie Victorious.”
This is a satisfying list of nominees, but of the three, the standout is Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ “Appropriate.” Although it was originally produced a decade ago, it couldn't be more timely, with a subject matter that gets right at the heart of what is sometimes referred to as "America's original sin," that of slavery, racism, white privilege, and all that these encompass.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE IN A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Eden Espinosa (“Lempicka”), Maleah Joi Moon (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Kelli O’Hara (“Days of Wine and Roses”), Maryann Plunkett (“The Notebook”), and Gayle Rankin (“Cabaret”).
“Lempicka” was not particularly well received (as measured by reviews and ticket sales) and closed after a brief run, so it is unlikely Eden Espinosa’s performance will carry her to a Tony. I think Gayle Rankin is doing a splendid job in “Cabaret,” but everything about the production has been controversial, enough so that it is likely to split Tony voters into pro and con camps. Maryann Plunkett will likely break your heart in “The Notebook,” but the role is perhaps too small to be singled out for a Tony. I absolutely loved Kelli O’Hara in “Days of Wine and Roses” (and was so pleased she won the Outer Critics Circle Award), but the show definitely drew a niche audience, so, again, not a likely Tony winner. Fortunately, with Maleah Joi Moon, voters have someone they can happily champion, a newcomer to Broadway whose a-star-is-born performance in “Hell’s Kitchen” make her the likeliest contender.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE IN A PLAY
The five nominees are Betsy Aidem (“Prayer for the French Republic”), Jessica Lange (“Mother Play”), Rachel McAdams (“Mary Jane”), Sarah Paulson (“Appropriate”), and Amy Ryan (“Doubt”).
An embarrassment of riches, here. Each of these splendid actresses brought so much amazing talent and skill to their roles, but I do believe it is between Jessica Lange and Sarah Paulson. Lange won the Outer Critics Circle Award for her portrayal of a messed-up, self-absorbed mom who never wanted to be one and who isn’t shy about letting her son and daughter know. But I think Paulson has the edge for her oversized performance in “Appropriate.” She is a blazing flame of fury in the role and is my pick as likeliest to win the Tony.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE IN A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Brody Grant (“The Outsiders”), Jonathan Groff (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Dorian Harewood (“The Notebook”), Brian d’Arcy James (“Days of Wine and Roses”), and Eddie Redmayne (“Cabaret”).
Again, lovely work all around, but it’s unlikely anyone will come between “Merrily We Roll Along” and its bid for Tony Awards. It’s gotta be Groff.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE IN A PLAY
The five nominees are William Jackson Harper (“Uncle Vanya”), Leslie Odom Jr. (“Purlie Victorious”), Liev Schreiber (“Doubt”), Jeremy Strong (“An Enemy of the People”), and Michael Stuhlbarg (“Patriots”).
Harper oozes undeniable charm in “Uncle Vanya,” but it’s not the type of role or the kind of production that shouts “Tony.” Odom was terrific in “Purlie Victorious,” especially when he set loose in some of the play’s gloriously powerhouse speeches. But that play closed early in February and is likely to be forgotten (with one notable exception that I’ll get to later on) by the Tony voters. Schreiber’s role in “Doubt” is certainly a biggie, but it is secondary to the role of his character’s nemesis, Sister Aloysius, and therefore it doesn’t shout “lead” loudly enough to warrant a win. Both Strong and Stuhlbarg are giving ace performances in their respective plays, but it is likely that Jeremy Strong, best known for his work in the HBO series “Succession,” will take the Tony.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL
The seven nominees are Shoshana Bean (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Amber Iman (“Lempicka”), Nikki M. James (“Suffs”), Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer (“Spamalot”), Kecia Lewis (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Lindsay Mendez (“Merrily We Roll Along”), and Bebe Neuwirth (“Cabaret”).
Tough call, this one. Can’t we just hand out seven Tony Awards for these wonderful performances? I’m thinking it will be a tight race among Kecia Lewis, Lindsay Mendez, and Bebe Neuwirth. I can’t really choose from among them, so I’ll resort to a kind of logic, which goes something like this: With two nominees from “Hell’s Kitchen,” that will water down the number of votes for Kecia Lewis. Bebe Neuwirth gets to the heart of the universal question raised by “Cabaret” when she sings the living daylights out of “What Would You Do,” but the show itself has not been showered with the kind of universal adoration that has been bestowed on “Merrily We Roll Along,” and no one wants to break up the winning trio by refusing any of the three a Tony. And let’s not forget the Sondheim factor. So, based on this analysis, I’m calling it for Lindsay Mendez.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY
The five nominees are Quincy Tyler Bernstine (“Doubt”), Juliana Canfield (“Stereophonic”), Celia Keenan-Bolger (“Mother Play”), Sarah Pidgeon (“Stereophonic”), and Kara Young (“Purlie Victorious”).
Earlier, I mentioned there was one notable exception to the collective forgetfulness of voters when it comes to productions that closed months ago. Thus, my two cents is on Kara Young, whose exceptional performance in “Purlie Victorious” as Lutiebelle Gussie Mae Jenkins was priceless. She won the Outer Critics Circle Award and I am predicting she’ll win the Tony.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL
The six nominees are Roger Bart (“Back to the Future”), Joshua Boone (“The Outsiders”), Brandon Victor Dixon (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Sky Lakota-Lynch (“The Outsiders”), Daniel Radcliffe (“Merrily We Roll Along”), and Steven Skybell (“Cabaret”).
The cheese will not stand alone, as Daniel Radcliffe joins his “old friends” from “Merrily We Roll Along” and picks up a Tony for his performance as Charlie.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY
The five nominees are Will Brill (“Stereophonic”), Eli Gelb (“Stereophonic”), Jim Parsons (“Mother Play”), Tom Pecinka (“Stereophonic”), and Corey Stoll (“Appropriate”).
This makes five acting nominations for cast members of “Stereophonic” and speaks to the high quality of the production overall. Too bad there is no Tony Award for Best Ensemble cuz the cast of “Stereophonic” would win hands down. But there isn’t. I think anyone would be hard pressed to pick one performance over the rest. But since “Appropriate” is such a deeply rich play with juicy roles all around, I’m predicting that Cory Stoll will win this one.
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Maria Friedman (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Michael Greif (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Leigh Silverman (“Suffs”), Jessica Stone (“Water for Elephants”), and Danya Taymor (“The Outsiders”).
Here we are pitting the director of the best musical revival against the director of the best new musical. A tie would be nice, but this one is for Maria Friedman for reimagining and breathing new life into “Merrily We Roll Along.”
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
The five nominees are Annie-B Parson (“Here Lies Love”), Camille A. Brown (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman (“The Outsiders”), Justin Peck (“Illinoise”), and Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll (“Water for Elephants”).
This has been a great season of choreography, with each of these nominees making the art form of dance a front-and-center element of their respective shows. It’s a tough call, with such thrilling work on display. I was particularly taken with Camille A. Brown’s choreography for “Hell’s Kitchen.” The dance numbers light up the stage all on their own and play a huge part in raising the level of this show way beyond anything you might expect from a jukebox musical that isn’t “MJ”. So kudos to Brown. Nevertheless, I expect a win for Justin Peck, who pulled out all the stops to create the choreography that, when combined with Sufjan Stevens’ songs, serves to tell the emotionally rich tapestry of tales that make up “Illinoise.” The fact that Peck wrote the book and directed the production only serves to clinch the deal.
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Kristoffer Diaz (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Bekah Brunstetter (“The Notebook”), Adam Rapp and Justin Levine (“The Outsiders”), Shaina Taub (“Suffs”), and Rick Elice “Water for Elephants”).
Three of these were adapted from novels, one was shaped around mostly existing songs, and one was an original work. That would be “Suffs,” which does an outstanding job of telling the story of women’s suffrage movement in the U. S. The characters are distinct, and the writing relates the history with strength and clarity. The Tony goes to Shaina Taub for “Suffs.”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE WRITTEN FOR THE THEATRE
The five nominees are Adam Guettel “Days of Wine and Roses”), David Byrne and Fatboy Slim (“Here Lies Love”), Will Butler (“Stereophonic”), Shaina Taub (“Suffs”), and Jamestown Revival & Justin Levine (“The Outsiders”).
Personally, I love Adam Guettel’s jazzy, soaring, stirring, and altogether sublime score for “Days of Wine and Roses.” But I’m pretty sure the Tony will go Will Butler, and I’m equally happy with that. “Stereophonic,” which is not officially a musical, could not work without Butler’s songs, so, yes, the Tony.
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
The six nominees are Timo Andres (“Illinoise”), Will Butler and Justin Craig (“Stereophonic”), Justine Levine, Matt Hinkley, and Jamestown Revival (“The Outsiders”), Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone (“Hell’s Kitchen”), and Jonathan Tunick (“Merrily We Roll Along”).
Tunick is forever associated with Sondheim, and with “Merrily We Roll Along” garnering such love, a win for this might just happen (“Merrily” is Tunick’s twelfth Tony nomination, with one win under his belt – for “Titanic” in 1997). But I think the race is a tight one, with Tunick running neck-and-neck with Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone’s orchestrations for “Hell’s Kitchen.” In the end, turning a collection made up almost entirely of existing songs into a cohesive musical is quite a feat, so I’m thinking Kitt and Blackstone will win this one.
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
The five nominees are Daniel Aukin (“Stereophonic”), Anne Kauffman (“Mary Jane”), Kenny Leon (”Purlie Victorious”), Lila Neugebauer (“Appropriate”), and Whitney White (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”).
Here we go again. Best New Play: “Stereophonic” v Best Play Revival: “Appropriate.” Flip a coin? Nah. My best guess is Daniel Aukin for the masterful ensemble piece that is “Stereophonic.”
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
The seven nominees are AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian (“The Outsiders”), Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Takeshi Kata (”Water for Elephants”), David Korins (“Here Lies Love”), Riccardo Hernández and Peter Nigrini (“Lempicka”), Tim Hatley and Finn Ross (“Back to the Future”), and Tom Scutt (“Cabaret”).
Good choices here, but I’m going to say it’s a win for Takeshi Kata’s design for “Water for Elephants,” which has to accommodate both the narrative and the many circus elements that are seamless fused into a visually thrilling whole.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
The five nominees (actually three, as you will notice) are the design collective known as dots (“Appropriate”), dots (“An Enemy of the People”), Derek McLane (“Purlie Victorious”), David Zinn (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” and David Zinn (“Stereophonic”).
Will the two nominations for dots and the two for David Zinn open the pathway for Derek McLane? Not this time. It’ll be David Zinn for “Stereophonic.”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Dede Ayite (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Linda Cho (“The Great Gatsby”), David Israel Raynoso (“Water for Elephants”), Tom Scutt (“Cabaret”), and Paul Tazewell (“Suffs”).
The one who best captured the style of the era in which the show is set is Linda Cho, whose award will allow “The Great Gatsby” to call itself a Tony-winning musical.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
The five (four actually, with a couple of names that will sound rather familiar by now) are the very talented and very busy Dede Ayite (“Appropriate”), Dede Ayite (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”), Enver Chakartash (“Stereophonic”), Emilio Sosa (“Purlie Victorious”), and David Zinn (“An Enemy of the People”)
Tough call among such talented designers, but I’m going with Dede Ayite for “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” a lovely mix of contemporary American and African-inspired costumes, so fitting for this show.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Brandon Stirling Baker (“Illinoise”), Isabella Byrd (“Cabaret”), Natasha Kat (“Hell’s Kitchen”). Bradley King and David Bengali (“Water for Elephants”), and Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim (“The Outsiders”)
Lighting and sound are integral design elements that can have a tremendous effect on how the audience perceives the performance. In this case, I believe that Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim’s outstanding lighting work on “The Outsiders” will take the Tony.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
The five nominees are Isabella Byrd (“An Enemy of the People”), Amith Chandrashaker (“Prayer for the French Republic”), Jiyoun Chang (“Stereophonic”), Jane Cox (“Appropriate”), and Natasha Katz (“Grey House”).
This one is between Jane Cox an Natasha Katz. “Grey House” is all about atmosphere, and the lighting is key to providing that haunted look. It is, however, a show that came and went without much notice way back at the start of the season. Frankly, I’d like to see it pick up this one, but I’m thinking the Tony will go to Jane Cox for the much more successful “Appropriate,” in which the design elements work so well to support the overall production.
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
The five nominees are M. L. Dogg and Cody Spencer (“Here Lies Love”), Kai Harada (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Nick Lidster for Autograph (“Cabaret”), Gareth Owen (“Hell’s Kitchen”), and Cody Spencer (“The Outsiders”).
Can you hear me now? Sound design has improved tremendously over the past few years. Even so, M. L. Dogg and Cody Spencer faced some unique design challenges, as the performers in “Here Lies Love” moved all over the theater. And yet not a word was lost. So, yes, a Tony for this.
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
The five nominees are Justin Ellington an Stefania Bulbarella (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”), Leah Gelpe (“Mary Jane”), Tom Gibbons (“Grey House”), Bray Poor and Will Pickens (“Appropriate”), and Ryan Rumery (“Stereophonic”).
When you are working on a play that takes place entirely in a recording studio, you’d better get the sound design right. And Ryan Rumery did just that with “Stereophonic.” Tony time!
In sum, my predictions:
Best new musical: Hell’s Kitchen
Best revival of a musical: Merrily We Roll Along
Best new play: Stereophonic
Best play revival: Appropriate
Best performance by an actress in a lead role in a musical: Maleah Joi Moon
Best performance by an actress in a lead role in a play: Sarah Paulson
Best performance by an actor in a lead role in a musical: Jonathan Groff
Best performance by an actor in a lead role in a play: Jeremy Strong
Best performance by an actress in a featured role in a musical: Lindsay Mendez
Best performance by an actress in a featured role in a play: Kara Young
Best performance by an actor in a featured role in a musical: Daniel Radcliffe
Best performance by an actor in a featured role in a play: Cory Stoll
Best direction of a musical: Maria Friedman
Best choreography: Justin Peck
Best book of a musical: Shaina Taub
Best original score: Will Butler
Best orchestrations: Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone
Best direction of a play: Daniel Aukin
Best scenic design of a musical: Takeshi Kata
Best scenic design of a play: David Zinn for “Stereophonic”
Best costume design of a musical: Linda Cho
Best costume design of a play: Dede Ayite for “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”
Best lighting design of a musical: Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim
Best lighting design of a play: Jane Cox
Best sound design of a musical: M. L. Dogg and Cody Spencer
Best sound design of a play: Ryan Rumery
