I will never get rich by predicting the winners of the Tony Awards, but that won't stop me from giving it my best shot.
For now, let's take a look at the musicals. Later, in separate posts, I will discuss straight plays and the design elements (lighting, sound, costumes, set).
Nominees for Best New Musical
The Band's Visit
Frozen
Mean Girls
SpongeBob SquarePants
My favorite.
SpongeBob SquarePants. Upside: A truly creative delight from start to finish. Working against: For voters who aren't a fan of the cartoon character who lives in a pineapple under the sea, it won't resonate as much.
SpongeBob SquarePants. Upside: A truly creative delight from start to finish. Working against: For voters who aren't a fan of the cartoon character who lives in a pineapple under the sea, it won't resonate as much.
What I think will win.
The Band's Visit. Upside: It's the kind of small show that voters like to get behind, with a fine cast and an excellent score by a highly respected composer. Working against: Some voters might not think it fair to give the top prize to a show that is a transfer from Off Broadway, where it already received praise and awards last year.
The Band's Visit. Upside: It's the kind of small show that voters like to get behind, with a fine cast and an excellent score by a highly respected composer. Working against: Some voters might not think it fair to give the top prize to a show that is a transfer from Off Broadway, where it already received praise and awards last year.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Mean Girls. Upside: The show's creator, Tina Fey, is very popular among voters. It is certainly well acted, and the design elements are strong. Working against: It's just not that good. The score is ho-hum, and the "mean girls" are not mean enough to get much of a satiric treatment.
Mean Girls. Upside: The show's creator, Tina Fey, is very popular among voters. It is certainly well acted, and the design elements are strong. Working against: It's just not that good. The score is ho-hum, and the "mean girls" are not mean enough to get much of a satiric treatment.
Nuh-uh.
Frozen. Upside: Disney. Familiarity to potential audience. Working against: Resting too much on Disney name and fans of the film. Tries too hard to reproduce the movie. Music and design elements are ho-hum.
Frozen. Upside: Disney. Familiarity to potential audience. Working against: Resting too much on Disney name and fans of the film. Tries too hard to reproduce the movie. Music and design elements are ho-hum.
My Fair Lady
Once On This Island
Carousel
My favorite.
Once On This Island. Upside: Directing, design elements, and performances are all first-rate. Working against: Small show. Somewhat dark in tone. Not clear on who the audience is (kids, families, more traditional theatergoers?). Not easily taken on the road because of design elements that would need to be rethought.
Once On This Island. Upside: Directing, design elements, and performances are all first-rate. Working against: Small show. Somewhat dark in tone. Not clear on who the audience is (kids, families, more traditional theatergoers?). Not easily taken on the road because of design elements that would need to be rethought.
What I think will win.
Once On This Island. Upside: It's simply the best all-around musical revival. Working against: What I said above.
Once On This Island. Upside: It's simply the best all-around musical revival. Working against: What I said above.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Carousel. Upside: It's Rodgers and Hammerstein at the top of their game, with a strong cast of singers and dancers. Working against: Murky direction and choreography.
Carousel. Upside: It's Rodgers and Hammerstein at the top of their game, with a strong cast of singers and dancers. Working against: Murky direction and choreography.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
My Fair Lady. Upside: It's a show that rests favorably in the recollections of theatergoers from the original cast recording (Julie Andrews and Rex Harrison) or the film (Audrey Hepburn and Rex Harrison). It's also a very intelligent conceptualization by a popular director, who has done wonders with South Pacific and The King and I. Working against: Some won't like the fact that it is not being played as a romantic comedy. The stars are relatively unknown.
My Fair Lady. Upside: It's a show that rests favorably in the recollections of theatergoers from the original cast recording (Julie Andrews and Rex Harrison) or the film (Audrey Hepburn and Rex Harrison). It's also a very intelligent conceptualization by a popular director, who has done wonders with South Pacific and The King and I. Working against: Some won't like the fact that it is not being played as a romantic comedy. The stars are relatively unknown.
Nominees for Best Book of a Musical
The Band's Visit: Itamar Moses
Frozen: Jennifer Lee
Mean Girls: Tina Fey
SpongeBob SquarePants: Kyle Jarrow
Frozen: Jennifer Lee
Mean Girls: Tina Fey
SpongeBob SquarePants: Kyle Jarrow
My favorite.
SpongeBob SquarePants. Upside: If you know the TV cartoon, you'll know that it is full of sly, quirky, and clever writing that can be enjoyed by adults as well as kids. Working against: Unconventional. Competitors are more likely to be known by the voters.
SpongeBob SquarePants. Upside: If you know the TV cartoon, you'll know that it is full of sly, quirky, and clever writing that can be enjoyed by adults as well as kids. Working against: Unconventional. Competitors are more likely to be known by the voters.
What I think will win.
The Band's Visit. Upside: If the show itself wins the Tony, it's likely its writer will win as well. It's not a bad thing; it's just that I was taken more with SpongeBob. Working against: It's a small story without a lot going on to warrant much attention to the book.
The Band's Visit. Upside: If the show itself wins the Tony, it's likely its writer will win as well. It's not a bad thing; it's just that I was taken more with SpongeBob. Working against: It's a small story without a lot going on to warrant much attention to the book.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Mean Girls. Upside: The show's creator, Tina Fey, is very popular among voters, and she certainly is a good writer. Working against: It's kind of a familiar story, based on Tina Fey's own movie script. Far cleverer and funnier is Off Broadway's School Girls: Or, The African Mean Girls Play by Jocelyn Bioh - which, of course, is not eligible for a Tony.
Mean Girls. Upside: The show's creator, Tina Fey, is very popular among voters, and she certainly is a good writer. Working against: It's kind of a familiar story, based on Tina Fey's own movie script. Far cleverer and funnier is Off Broadway's School Girls: Or, The African Mean Girls Play by Jocelyn Bioh - which, of course, is not eligible for a Tony.
Nuh-uh.
Frozen. Upside: Disney. As they say, nothing succeeds like success. Working against: Tries too hard to reproduce the movie; same writer for both, by the way.
Frozen. Upside: Disney. As they say, nothing succeeds like success. Working against: Tries too hard to reproduce the movie; same writer for both, by the way.
Nominees for Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics)
Angels in America
Music: Adrian Sutton
The Band's Visit
Music and Lyrics: David Yazbek
Music and Lyrics: David Yazbek
Frozen
Music and Lyrics: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Music and Lyrics: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Mean Girls
Music: Jeff Richmond
Lyrics: Nell Benjamin
Music: Jeff Richmond
Lyrics: Nell Benjamin
SpongeBob SquarePants:
Music and Lyrics: Yolanda Adams, Steven Tyler and Joe Perry of Aerosmith, Sara Bareilles, Jonathan Coulton, Alex Ebert of Edward Sharpe and The Magnetic Zeros, The Flaming Lips, Lady Antebellum, Cyndi Lauper and Rob Hyman, John Legend, Panic! at the Disco, Plain White T's, They Might Be Giants, T.I., Domani and Lil'C
Music and Lyrics: Yolanda Adams, Steven Tyler and Joe Perry of Aerosmith, Sara Bareilles, Jonathan Coulton, Alex Ebert of Edward Sharpe and The Magnetic Zeros, The Flaming Lips, Lady Antebellum, Cyndi Lauper and Rob Hyman, John Legend, Panic! at the Disco, Plain White T's, They Might Be Giants, T.I., Domani and Lil'C
My favorite.
SpongeBob SquarePants. Upside: Loved the contributions by so many different song writers and teams. I give a lot of credit to Tom Kitt, whose arrangements and orchestrations make it seem like a cohesive show score rather than a assorted collection of different tunes. Working against: Nothing, except see below.
SpongeBob SquarePants. Upside: Loved the contributions by so many different song writers and teams. I give a lot of credit to Tom Kitt, whose arrangements and orchestrations make it seem like a cohesive show score rather than a assorted collection of different tunes. Working against: Nothing, except see below.
What I think will win.
The Band's Visit. Upside: David Yazbek has written a score that is ideally suited to this show; not a clunker in the bunch. it's just that I was taken more with SpongeBob. Working against: Sweet little story for grownups, with a score that matches it. Voters might be looking for bigger audience grabbers.
The Band's Visit. Upside: David Yazbek has written a score that is ideally suited to this show; not a clunker in the bunch. it's just that I was taken more with SpongeBob. Working against: Sweet little story for grownups, with a score that matches it. Voters might be looking for bigger audience grabbers.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Mean Girls. Upside: Some decent songs, aimed at a much broader audience. Working against: Can't stand up against either Spongebob or Band's Visit in terms of quality.
Mean Girls. Upside: Some decent songs, aimed at a much broader audience. Working against: Can't stand up against either Spongebob or Band's Visit in terms of quality.
Nuh-uh.
Frozen. Upside: "Let It Go." Working against: Generally weak score altogether, with several numbers that serve practically no purpose with respect to the story that is being told here.
Frozen. Upside: "Let It Go." Working against: Generally weak score altogether, with several numbers that serve practically no purpose with respect to the story that is being told here.
Nuh-uh.
Angels In America. Upside: Attached to a great show. Working against: Music is used for transitions - hardly the stuff of a Tony-worthy score.
Angels In America. Upside: Attached to a great show. Working against: Music is used for transitions - hardly the stuff of a Tony-worthy score.
Nominees for Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady
Hailey Kilgore, Once On This Island
LaChanze, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical
Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit
Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls
Jessie Mueller, Carousel
My favorite.
Katrina Lenk. Upside: Lovely performance, showing warmth, intelligence, and depth of character - plus a terrific singing voice. Working against: Got me.
Katrina Lenk. Upside: Lovely performance, showing warmth, intelligence, and depth of character - plus a terrific singing voice. Working against: Got me.
Who I think will win.
Katrina Lenk. Upside: Like I said. Working against: If someone gets more votes.
Katrina Lenk. Upside: Like I said. Working against: If someone gets more votes.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Hailey Kilgore. Upside: A career-launching performance. Lovely stage presence and a powerful belting singer. Working against: Too much belting; needs to develop some subtlety in her performance.
Hailey Kilgore. Upside: A career-launching performance. Lovely stage presence and a powerful belting singer. Working against: Too much belting; needs to develop some subtlety in her performance.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
LaChanze. Upside: Not only the best reason to see Summer: The Donna Summer Musical, but, really, the only reason. Working against: She shares the title role with two other performers.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Lauren Anbrose. Upside: Quite good in director Bartlett Sher’s re-visioning of that old warhorse My Fair Lady. Working against: Hard to ignore memories of Julie Andrews and Audrey Hepburn.
Nuh-uh.
Taylor Louderman. Upside: Good singer and well cast as the queen bee-atch in Mean Girls. Working against: Lack of name recognition. Voters may have to look her up to see which role she played in the show.
Nuh-uh.
Jessie Mueller. Upside: Wonderful singer and performer. Won a Tony for playing Carole King in Beautiful and nominated for the lead role in Waitress Working against: Playing Julie in Carousel, she is all but invisible after "If I Loved You." I recommend you watch her as Carrie in the semi-staged Lincoln Center production of Carousel from 2013, available at multiple streaming sites. She is fantastic in that role.
Nominees for Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady
Joshua Henry, Carousel
Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit
Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants
Joshua Henry, Carousel
Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit
Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants
My favorite.
Ethan Slater. Upside: If you could bottle talent, charm, and energy, it would look like this. Working against: Voters with an aversion to the whole idea of a cartoon character coming to life on a Broadway stage will look elsewhere.
Who I think will win. Joshua Henry. Upside: Some odd directing decisions lead to making his portrayal of Billy Bigelow a little odd at times, but he sings and performs the part well and leaves a lasting impression of a difficult and complicated character. He's been nominated twice before, for his excellent performances in Violet and The Scottsboro Boys. It's time he be recognized with the Tony. Working against: That quirky performance may not sit well with some voters.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Tony Shalhoub. Upside: He is quite good in the role of the Egyptian bandleader. He is a very popular theater actor, apart from his successful television career. This is his fourth Tony nomination, and so, as with Mr. Henry, now may be his time. Working against: He has been on hiatus from the show since March due to TV filming commitments.
Nuh-uh.
Harry Hadden-Paton. Upside: He is fine as Henry Higgins in the revival of My Fair Lady, fitting in well with director Bartlett Sher's reconceptualization of the musical as a feminist vehicle for Eliza Doolittle. Working against: No magic here, and he lacks the ability to charm an audience the way Rex Harrison was able to.
Nominees for Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Ariana DeBose, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical
Renée Fleming, Carousel
Lindsay Mendez, Carousel
Ashley Park, Mean Girls
Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady
Renée Fleming, Carousel
Lindsay Mendez, Carousel
Ashley Park, Mean Girls
Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady
My favorite.
Diana Rigg. Upside: For one thing, she's Diana Rigg. For another, she is perfectly delightful in the role. Working against: This is a musical; she does no singing.
Who I think will win.
Lindsay Mendez. Upside: In this rather gloomy Carousel, her perky portrayal of Carrie is a breath of fresh air. Working against: Voters may split between her and Renée Fleming, which could give the win to another.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Renée Fleming. Upside: For one thing, she's Renée Fleming. She sings up a storm with "You'll Never Walk Alone." Working against: Her acting is not up to Broadway standards; she's used to being the diva in the spotlight. Also, she may split the vote with her Carousel co-nominee, Lindsay Mendez.
Nuh-uh.
Ariana DeBose. Upside: She gets a lot of visibility in the mess that is Summer: The Donna Summer Musical, and she can sing and dance. Working against: She's not really right for the part (Donna Summer at the height of her disco glory), and she splits the title role with two others, among them the far better LaChanze.
Nuh-uh.
Ashley Park. Upside: She is fine in the role of one of the Plastics in Mean Girls, the one whose self-esteem is in seriously short supply. Working against: Mean Girls is an ensemble piece. It is very difficult to distinguish which actress is playing which character except when you are watching it.
Ariana DeBose. Upside: She gets a lot of visibility in the mess that is Summer: The Donna Summer Musical, and she can sing and dance. Working against: She's not really right for the part (Donna Summer at the height of her disco glory), and she splits the title role with two others, among them the far better LaChanze.
Nuh-uh.
Ashley Park. Upside: She is fine in the role of one of the Plastics in Mean Girls, the one whose self-esteem is in seriously short supply. Working against: Mean Girls is an ensemble piece. It is very difficult to distinguish which actress is playing which character except when you are watching it.
Nominees for Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady
Alexander Gemignani, Carousel
Grey Henson, Mean Girls
Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants
Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit
Alexander Gemignani, Carousel
Grey Henson, Mean Girls
Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants
Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit
My favorite.
Gavin Lee. Upside: He's glorious as SpongeBob's cantankerous neighbor Squidward, and he dances up a storm in the 11 o'clock number. Working against: Voters who are not "into" Spongebobmay look elsewhere.
Who I think will win.
Gavin Lee. Upside: See above. Working against: Nope. He's that good.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Norbert Leo Butz. Upside: As always, he gives it his all. The role of Liza's father in My Fair Lady is always a crowd pleaser, and may please the voters as well. Working against: His character comes of as more than a bit of a jerk here, something Butz embraces but that the voters might not like.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Alexander Gemignani. Upside: He's a perfect foil to Lindsay Mendez's Carrie in Carousel. If she wins, they may pull it off as a matched pair. Working against: Though he plays and sings the role of Mr. Snow well, if it weren't for Ms. Mendez sharing the stage with him, there'd not be enough for him to cross the finish line ahead of the others.
Nuh-uh.
Grey Henson. Upside: He plays everyone's favorite character in Mean Girls, the "almost too gay to function" Damian, and he gets to perform two of the better songs. Working against: Too much of an unknown entity.
Nuh-uh.
Ari'el Stachel. Upside: He's fine as the self-declared lady's man and Chet Baker wannabe. Working against: Not enough there to make him a standout. Others in the cast could just as well have been nominated.
Grey Henson. Upside: He plays everyone's favorite character in Mean Girls, the "almost too gay to function" Damian, and he gets to perform two of the better songs. Working against: Too much of an unknown entity.
Nuh-uh.
Ari'el Stachel. Upside: He's fine as the self-declared lady's man and Chet Baker wannabe. Working against: Not enough there to make him a standout. Others in the cast could just as well have been nominated.
Nominees for Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Once On This Island
David Cromer, The Band's Visit
Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants
Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls
Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady
David Cromer, The Band's Visit
Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants
Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls
Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady
My favorite.
Michael Arden. Upside: Right now, he's the king of revivals, surpassing even Bartlett Sher, whose direction of South Pacific a few years back was one for the ages but who hasn't quite found the same magic since then. On the other hand, Arden has, with this and with his earlier revival of Spring Awakening. Working against: Nada. But if Tina Landau wins, I'm ok with that.
Who I think will win.
Michael Arden. Upside: What I said. Working against: See above.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Tina Landau. Upside: This is a remarkably creative and busy production with delights at every turn. If Arden doesn't win, I'd be more than happy to see it go to Landau. Working against: The Anti-Spongebob crowd may pass her over. Arden's work, as creative and imaginative as it is, fits more into a traditional mold.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Tina Landau. Upside: This is a remarkably creative and busy production with delights at every turn. If Arden doesn't win, I'd be more than happy to see it go to Landau. Working against: The Anti-Spongebob crowd may pass her over. Arden's work, as creative and imaginative as it is, fits more into a traditional mold.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Bartlett Sher. Upside: His reconsideration of My Fair Lady has a strong feminist perspective that is consistent, yet all of the familiar music, and even some of the look of many of the fondly-recalled iconic design elements remain in place. Working against: The director's strong point of view will not be everyone's cup of tea. And, while no one has mentioned this, one wonders how some of the voters will take to a man trying so hard to prove he is "woke."
Nuh-uh.
Casey Nicholaw. Upside: He keeps things moving, and he has done a good job with his young cast. Working against: The show is pretty conventional, with not a lot of opportunities for him to shine as a director.
Casey Nicholaw. Upside: He keeps things moving, and he has done a good job with his young cast. Working against: The show is pretty conventional, with not a lot of opportunities for him to shine as a director.
Nominees for Best Choreography
Christopher Gattelli, My Fair Lady
Christopher Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants
Steven Hoggett, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls
Justin Peck, Carousel
Christopher Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants
Steven Hoggett, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls
Justin Peck, Carousel
My favorite.
Christopher Gattelli for Spongebob SquarePants. Upside: Lots of big showy numbers with terrific dancing. Squidward's 11 o'clock number is a showstopper. I do expect we'll see it on the Tony show. Working against: Hard to imagine, but possibly Justin Peck will pick up more votes from the traditionalists.
Who I think will win.
Close call, but I think it will go to Justin Peck. Upside: He is a very good choreographer, with lots of experience. The second act pas de deux is georgeous, and the all-male dancing to "Blow High, Blow Low" is a crowd-pleaser in the Jerome Robbins mold. Working against: Lots of inconsistencies. The "Carousel Waltz" is murky, and much of the other dancing has him filling the stage with so many people at a time, you can't really see what's going on. Nevertheless, this is a dance-rich production of a beloved classic show of the sort that wins Tonys.
Nuh-uh:
Christopher Gattelli for My Fair Lady. Upside: Fine work that suits the production well. "I'm Getting Married in the Morning" is pretty much everything you'd expect to see. Working against: He can't compete with himself with respect to the amazing work he did for SpongeBob SquarePants.
Christopher Gattelli for My Fair Lady. Upside: Fine work that suits the production well. "I'm Getting Married in the Morning" is pretty much everything you'd expect to see. Working against: He can't compete with himself with respect to the amazing work he did for SpongeBob SquarePants.
Steven Hoggett. Upside: Movement is an important element in the design of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, sometimes being used to support the story and sometimes used as a means of distracting us from seeing the set-ups for the magic. Working against: It's awfully hard for the choreography within a straight play to rise to the level of winning the Tony.
Nominees for Best Orchestrations
John Clancy, Mean Girls
Tom Kitt, SpongeBob SquarePants
Annmarie Milazzo + Michael Starobin, Once On This Island
Jamshied Sharifi, The Band's Visit
Jonathan Tunick, Carousel
Tom Kitt, SpongeBob SquarePants
Annmarie Milazzo + Michael Starobin, Once On This Island
Jamshied Sharifi, The Band's Visit
Jonathan Tunick, Carousel
My favorite.
Tom Kitt. Upside: He has taken all of the music from all of the many contributors to the school and arranged and orchestrated it into one cohesive whole. It is a remarkable effort that makes his work a standout. Working against: Not really.
Who I think will win.
Tom Kitt. Upside: Yep. Working against: Nope.
Possibility of Sneaking In.
Any of the rest. Upside: All did fine, if conventional orchestrating. Working against: Tom Kitt's unique contributions to the success of SpongeBob SquarePants.
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