Thursday, May 29, 2025

Tony Predictions 2025 Part III: Best Musicals, Best Plays, and Wrap-up

 Welcome to the 2024-25 Tony Awards season, one which saw 21 musicals and 21 plays opening on Broadway, along with one "special event," Ben Platt's concert residency at the Palace Theatre.  


Who will win?  We all will find out on June 8. Meanwhile, here Is Part III of my predictions -- Best Musicals, Best Plays, and Wrap-up






For what it's worth, I am not a Tony voter, but I am an Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voter,  as well as the lead Broadway critic for Talkin' Broadway (talkinbroadway.com).

Of course, as a voter, I rely on my personal taste.  That's not the case when it comes to predicting the Tony winners, a skill that requires guesswork with respect to how the votes will fall.  Typically, my success rate lands at about 60%.

For this entry, I take a look at the Tony awards for best new musical, new play, musical revival, and play revival.  At the end, there is a complete list of my predictions for all of the awards. 



For best new Broadway musical of the 2024-25 Theater Season, the nominees are:


Buena Vista Social Club

Dead Outlaw

Death Becomes Her

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat


My Tony Prediction:

Maybe Happy Ending.  This crowd-pleaser has the earmarks of a winning combination of story, song, and design elements.  


For best new Broadway play of the 2024-25 theater season, the nominees are:

English

The Hills of California

John Proctor is the Villain

Oh, Mary!

Purpose


My Tony Prediction:  

Oh, Mary!  This perfect farce never lets up for a moment.  And how brave it was to retain every bit of the downtown vibe that launched the play in the first place. 


For best Broadway musical revival of the 2024-25 theater season, the nominees are:

Floyd Collins

Gypsy

Pirates! The Penzance Musical

Sunset Blvd. 


My Tony Prediction:

Sunset Blvd.  This is a wild and woolly revival, to be sure, but it certainly is original and committed to telling the story of the descent into madness of Norma Desmond in its own take-it or leave-it way.  Its audaciousness is likely to propel it to the Tony.


For best Broadway play revival of the 2024-25 theater season, the nominees are:

Eureka Day

Romeo + Juliet

Our Town

Yellow Face


My Tony Prediction:

Eureka Day.  This sharp, very funny, and exquisitely acted play satirizes what happens when seemingly like-minded people seek consensus.  

**************

THE LIST

Best Book of a Musical: Maybe Happy Ending

Best Original Score: Dead Outlaw

Best Orchestrations: Just in Time

Best Choreography: Buena Vista Social Club

Best Scenic Design of a Musical: Maybe Happy Ending 

Best Costume Design of a Musical: Buena Vista Social Club

Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Sunset Blvd. 

Best Sound Design of a Musical: Just in Time

Best Scenic Design of a Play: Stranger Things

Best Lighting Design of a Play: Stranger Things

Best Sound Design of a Play: Stranger Things

Best Costume Design of a Play: The Picture of Dorian Gray

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical: Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical: Nicole Scherzinger

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play: Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical: Danny Burstein, Gypsy

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical: Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play: Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play, Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day

Best Director of a Musical: Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.

Best Director of a Play: Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain

Best New Broadway Musical: Maybe Happy Ending

Best New Broadway Play: Oh, Mary!

Best Broadway Revival of a Musical:  Sunset Blvd.

Best Broadway Revival of a Play:  Eureka Day


***************

And that's it. My best guesses for the winners of the 2025 Tony Awards. I'll see ya at the theatre!  Oh, and don't bet your shirt on my predictions, cuz it's anybody's guess.  














Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Tony Predictions 2025 Part II: Musicals and Plays -- Acting and Directing

 Welcome to the 2024-25 Tony Awards season, one which saw 21 musicals and 21 plays opening on Broadway, along with one "special event," Ben Platt's concert residency at the Palace Theatre.  


Who will win?  We all will find out on June 8. Meanwhile, here Is Part II of my predictions -- Acting and Directing 






For what it's worth, I am not a Tony voter, but I am an Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voter,  as well as the lead Broadway critic for Talkin' Broadway (talkinbroadway.com).

Of course, as a voter, I rely on my personal taste.  That's not the case when it comes to predicting the Tony winners, a skill that requires guesswork with respect to how the votes will fall.  Typically, my success rate lands at about 60%.

For this entry, I take a look at the awards for acting and directing. 


Acting:  The Musicals


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical


The nominees are:


Darren CrissMaybe Happy Ending

Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw

Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.

Jonathan Groff, Just in Time

James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical

Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins


My Tony Prediction:


Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending.  This show has become "the little engine that could," and I think it will carry through to help Criss rise above the other excellent performers in this category. 



 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical


The nominees are:


Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her

Audra McDonald, Gypsy

Jasmine Amy RogersBOOP! The Musical

Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.

Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her



My Tony prediction:


Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.  This unique rendition of Sunset Blvd. would not work without its star, and her performances of the show's two big numbers are definite high points, enough to tap her for the Tony. 




Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical


The nominees are:


Brooks Ashmanskas, SMASH

Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw

Danny BursteinGypsy

Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat

Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins



My Tony prediction: 


Danny BursteinGypsy.  Audra McDonald clearly owns  this revival, but Burstein turns in a wonderfully three-dimensional "Herbie" here.  

 

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical



The nominees are:


Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club

Julia KnitelDead Outlaw

Gracie Lawrence, Just in Time

Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves

Joy Woods, Gypsy



My Tony prediction:


Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club.  A resplendent performance in a resplendent show.  Tony time. 



Acting:  The Plays


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play


The nominees are:


George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck

Cole EscolaOh, Mary!

Jon Michael Hill, Purpose

Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face

Harry Lennix, Purpose

Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow



My Tony prediction:


Cole EscolaOh, Mary!  Escola nailed this Off Broadway and now on Broadway.  It's a perfect farce, and they are perfect in it. 

 

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play


The nominees are:


Laura DonnellyThe Hills of California

Mia Farrow, The Roommate

LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose

Sadie Sink, John Proctor is the Villain

Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray


My Tony prediction:


Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray.  One actress, 26 roles.  And even if many of them are pre-recorded, it's still quite a feat, and performed with perfection.  




Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play


The nominees are:


Glenn Davis, Purpose

Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor is the Villain

Francis Jue, Yellow Face

Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross

Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!


My Tony Prediction:


Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary! A perfect Abe for our Mary.  Can't have one without the other, so it's Tony time for the pair. 


 

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play



The nominees are:



Tala Ashe, English

Jessica HechtEureka Day

Marjan Neshat, English

Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain

Kara Young, Purpose



My Tony prediction:


Kara YoungPurpose.  It looks like this outstanding actress, who received a Tony last year for her performance in Purlie Victorious, is primed to win her second one. 




Best Direction of a Musical


The nominees are:


Saheem Ali, Buena Vista Social Club

Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending

David Cromer, Dead Outlaw

Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her

Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.


My Tony Prediction:


Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.  There is nothing subtle about Lloyd's direction of this most eccentric production, but he certainly should be commended and Tony-ed for staying true to a singular vision from start to end.    


Best Direction of a Play


The nominees are:


Knud Adams, English

Sam Mendes, The Hills of California

Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!

Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain

Kip Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray


My Tony Prediction: 


Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain. Taymor's direction is the polar opposite of Jamie Lloyd's bombastic look-at-me one. The performances feel as if the director used a velvet glove to guide the cast into a glorious ensemble. Thumbs up here!  



**************

NEXT UP:  Best play, best musical, and final comments. 



Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Tony Predictions 2025 Part I: Musicals and Plays -- Creative and Design Elements

Welcome to the 2024-25 Tony Awards season, one which saw 21 musicals and 21 plays opening on Broadway, along with one "special event," Ben Platt's concert residency at the Palace Theatre.  


Who will win?  We all will find out on June 8. Meanwhile, here are my predictions.






For what it's worth, I am not a Tony voter, but I am an Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voter,  as well as the lead Broadway critic for Talkin' Broadway (talkinbroadway.com).

Of course, as a voter, I rely on my personal taste.  That's not the case when it comes to predicting the Tony winners, a skill that requires guesswork with respect to how the votes will fall.  Typically, my success rate lands at about 60%.

For Part I, I take a look at the creative and design elements of the musicals and plays up for awards. 


Musicals (creative and design elements)


Best Book of a Musical

The nominees are:

Operation Mincemeat,  book by David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and  Zoë Roberts. 

Buena Vista Social Club, book by Marco Ramirez.  

Dead Outlaw, book by Itamar Moses. 

Death Becomes Her, book by Marco Pennette.  

Maybe Happy Ending, book by Will Aronson and Hue Park.  


My Tony prediction:  

Will Aronson and Hue Park, for Maybe Happy Ending.  This sweetly offbeat little show has continued to grow in popularity ever since it opened, and it is likely to win the hearts of the Tony voters as well. 


Best Original Score 

The nominees are:

Dead Outlaw, music and lyrics by David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna.

Death Becomes Her, music and lyrics by Julia Mattison and Noel Carey. 

Maybe Happy Ending, music and lyrics by Will Aronson and Hue Park. 

Operation Mincemeat, music and lyrics by Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts. 

Real Women Have Curves, music and lyrics by Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez. 

 

My Tony Prediction: 

David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna, for Dead OutlawYazbek won the 2018 Tony for another quirky little show called The Band’s Visit, and I believe he’ll do it again (with a little help from his friend, guitarist Erik Della Penna). 


Best Orchestrations

The nominees are:

Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time

Will Aronson, Maybe Happy Ending

Bruce Coughlin, Floyd Collins

Marco Paguia, Buena Vista Social Club

David Cullen and Andrew Lloyd Webber, Sunset Blvd.


My Tony Prediction:

Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time.  The orchestrations for this are a perfect fit for the Vegas-style performances in that show.  


Best Choreography

The nominees are:

Joshua Bergasse,  SMASH

Camille A. Brown, Gypsy

Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her

Jerry Mitchell, BOOP! The Musical

Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club


My Tony Prediction: 

Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club.  The choreography rises to the top by fitting in so perfectly with the time and place and music of that show, whisking us to Cuba in the 1950s.   


Best Scenic Design of a Musical

The nominees are: 

Rachel Hauck, Swept Away

Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending

Arnulfo Maldonado, Buena Vista Social Club

Derek McLane, Death Becomes Her

Derek McLane, Just in Time


My Tony Prediction: 

Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending. The set design gave this show the look of a graphic novel, perfect for this charmer of a musical. 


Best Costume Design of a Musical

The nominees are:

Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club

Gregg Barnes, BOOP! The Musical

Clint Ramos, Maybe Happy Ending

Paul Tazewell, Death Becomes Her

Catherine Zuber, Just in Time


My Tony Prediction: 

Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club. Like the choreography, the costumes whirl you back in time to 1950s Cuba and greatly enhance the overall experience. 


Best Lighting Design of a Musical

The nominees are: 

Jack Knowles,  Sunset Blvd.

Tyler Micoleau,  Buena Vista Social Club

Scott Zielinski and Ruey Horng Sun, Floyd Collins

Ben Stanton, Maybe Happy Ending

Justin Townsend, Death Becomes Her


My Tony Prediction:  

Jack Knowles, Sunset Blvd.  The production is almost devoid of a setting, and so the lighting carries a lot of weight when it comes to creating the noirish atmosphere, with bonus points for lighting the live video feed at the top of Act II.    


Best sound design of a musical

The nominees are:

Jonathan Deans, Buena Vista Social Club

Adam Fisher, Sunset Blvd.

Peter Hylenski, Just in Time

Peter Hylenski, Maybe Happy Ending

Dan Moses Schreier, Floyd Collins


My Tony prediction:  

Peter Hylenski, Just in Time.  The sound design perfectly meets the demands of the production and the venue.   So, it’s hats off to Peter Hylenski’s outstanding work for this musical based on the life and career of Bobby Darin. 


Plays: scenic, lighting, and sound design

(I'm calling a triple play.  See below). 



Best Scenic Design of a Play


The nominees are: 


Marsha Ginsberg, English

Rob Howell, The Hills of California

Marg Horwell and David Bergman, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Miriam Buether and 59, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Scott Pask, Good Night, and Good Luck



Best Lighting Design of a Play


Natasha Chivers, The Hills of California

Jon Clark, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Heather Gilbert and David Bengali, Good Night, and Good Luck

Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski, John Proctor is the Villain

Nick Schlieper, The Picture of Dorian Gray

 


Best Sound Design of a Play


Paul Arditti, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Palmer Hefferan, John Proctor is the Villain

Daniel Kluger, Good Night, and Good Luck

Nick Powell, The Hills of California

Clemence Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray

 


My Tony prediction:  


A sweep for Stranger Things: The First Shadow.   


Miriam Buether and 59, scenic design

Jon Clark, lighting design

Paul Arditti, sound design

 

This prequel to the popular Netflix sci-fi/horror series offers up an eyeful of scenic, lighting, projection, and sound design elements that will be hard to beat.   

 


Best Costume Design of a Play


Brenda Abbandandolo, Good Night, and Good Luck

Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Rob Howell, The Hills of California

Holly Pierson, Oh, Mary!

Brigitte Reiffenstuel, Stranger Things: The First Shadow


My Tony prediction:  


Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray.  26 costumes for Sarah Snook, each of them unique. How are you going to top that?


*****************



NEXT UP:  Awards for acting and directing 


Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Predicting the 2024 Tony Awards: A Conversation with Myself.



If you are reading this, I’m pretty sure you realize it is awards time for the 2023-24 New York theater season.  


For Broadway, the season began with the first preview in April 2023 of “Grey House,” Levi Holloway’s theatricalization of any number of fright flicks (more atmospheric like “The Haunting” than scary-gory like “The Evil Dead”).  


The last play to open during a mad rush to meet the Tonys cutoff date was “Mother Play,” Paula Vogel’s quasi-autobiographical examination of life with her less-than-maternal mother, which boasts a starry three-person cast of Jessica Lange, Celia Keenan-Bolger, and Jim Parsons. 


In between:  9 additional new plays, 5 play revivals, 15 new musicals, 6 musical revivals, and a couple of special events (the magic show “El Mago Pop” and “Melissa Etheridge:  My Window,” which was a wonderful addition to the season.)


While I am a voter for the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards, I am not a Tony voter (except for the Regional Theatre Tony Award, which this year is being bestowed on Philadelphia’s Wilma Theater).  Still, I’m happy to make predictions, for what they are worth, as to the likely Tony winners.  Just please do not make any wagers base on my remarks, because who can read the minds of the actual voters? Anyway, for what it’s worth, my batting average generally runs around 60 percent or thereabouts.  So here we go: 


BEST NEW MUSICAL


In my view, the best new musical of the season was the Atlantic Theater Company’s Off Broadway production of “Buena Vista Social Club.” I’m hoping its reputed transfer to Broadway will happen this coming fall.  But until it does, it is not Tony eligible.  


That leaves us with the five actual nominees:  “Hell’s Kitchen,” “Illinoise,” “The Outsiders,” “Suffs,” and “Water for Elephants.” 


All are strong contenders for various reasons, but I’m thinking that the Tony will go to “Hell’s Kitchen,” Alicia Keys’ semi-autobiographical musical which is full of youthful energy, Keys’ songs, wonderful choreography, and terrific performances that make it rise to the top of the pack.  


BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL


The four nominees are: 

“Cabaret,” “Guttenberg,” “Merrily We Roll Along,” and “Tommy.”


“Guttenberg” is mostly fun, thanks to the pairing of Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells as a couple of theater nerds dreaming of hitting the big time with their own show. “Tommy” is an exquisitely executed trip down trippy memory lane.  And “Cabaret” captures what, at least in my view, is necessary for any production of this show, the spirit of sleaziness and debauchery of rotting souls just as Naziism was on the rise in Germany.  Nevertheless, there is no doubt in my mind that the Tony will go to the revival of “Merrily We Roll Along,” the much loved and often tinkered with George Furth/Stephen Sondheim musical that has finally found its footing under Maria Friedman’s direction and its trio of pitch-perfect, crowd-pleasing lead performers:  Jonathan Groff, Lindsay Mendez, and Daniel Radcliffe.  


BEST NEW PLAY


The five nominees are:

“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” “Mary Jane,” “Mother Play,” “Prayer for the French Republic,” and “Stereophonic.” 


Each of these is well deserving of being singled out – thoughtful, original, and deeply engaging. Of these, however, an almost universal love has been bestowed upon “Stereophonic,” David Adjmi’s play about a rock band dealing with creative and personal challenges during the recording a new album during the mid-1970s. It is my personal favorite among the nominees as well, and I don’t think it’s too much of a leap to suggest this is the one that will take home the Tony.


BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY


The three nominees are:

“Appropriate,” “An Enemy of the People,” and “Purlie Victorious.”  


This is a satisfying list of nominees, but of the three, the standout is Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ “Appropriate.” Although it was originally produced a decade ago, it couldn't be more timely, with a subject matter that gets right at the heart of what is sometimes referred to as "America's original sin," that of slavery, racism, white privilege, and all that these encompass.  


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE IN A MUSICAL


The five nominees are Eden Espinosa (“Lempicka”), Maleah Joi Moon (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Kelli O’Hara (“Days of Wine and Roses”), Maryann Plunkett (“The Notebook”), and Gayle Rankin (“Cabaret”).


“Lempicka” was not particularly well received (as measured by reviews and ticket sales) and closed after a brief run, so it is unlikely Eden Espinosa’s performance will carry her to a Tony.  I think Gayle Rankin is doing a splendid job in “Cabaret,” but everything about the production has been controversial, enough so that it is likely to split Tony voters into pro and con camps.  Maryann Plunkett will likely break your heart in “The Notebook,” but the role is perhaps too small to be singled out for a Tony. I absolutely loved Kelli O’Hara in “Days of Wine and Roses” (and was so pleased she won the Outer Critics Circle Award), but the show definitely drew a niche audience, so, again, not a likely Tony winner. Fortunately, with Maleah Joi Moon, voters have someone they can happily champion, a newcomer to Broadway whose a-star-is-born performance in “Hell’s Kitchen” make her the likeliest contender.  


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE IN A PLAY


The five nominees are Betsy Aidem (“Prayer for the French Republic”), Jessica Lange (“Mother Play”), Rachel McAdams (“Mary Jane”), Sarah Paulson (“Appropriate”), and Amy Ryan (“Doubt”). 


An embarrassment of riches, here. Each of these splendid actresses brought so much amazing talent and skill to their roles, but I do believe it is between Jessica Lange and Sarah Paulson. Lange won the Outer Critics Circle Award for her portrayal of a messed-up, self-absorbed mom who never wanted to be one and who isn’t shy about letting her son and daughter know.  But I think Paulson has the edge for her oversized performance in “Appropriate.”  She is a blazing flame of fury in the role and is my pick as likeliest to win the Tony.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE IN A MUSICAL


The five nominees are Brody Grant (“The Outsiders”), Jonathan Groff (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Dorian Harewood (“The Notebook”), Brian d’Arcy James (“Days of Wine and Roses”), and Eddie Redmayne (“Cabaret”).


Again, lovely work all around, but it’s unlikely anyone will come between “Merrily We Roll Along” and its bid for Tony Awards.  It’s gotta be Groff.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE IN A PLAY


The five nominees are William Jackson Harper (“Uncle Vanya”), Leslie Odom Jr. (“Purlie Victorious”), Liev Schreiber (“Doubt”), Jeremy Strong (“An Enemy of the People”), and Michael Stuhlbarg (“Patriots”). 


Harper oozes undeniable charm in “Uncle Vanya,” but it’s not the type of role or the kind of production that shouts “Tony.” Odom was terrific in “Purlie Victorious,” especially when he set loose in some of the play’s gloriously powerhouse speeches.  But that play closed early in February and is likely to be forgotten (with one notable exception that I’ll get to later on) by the Tony voters.  Schreiber’s role in “Doubt” is certainly a biggie, but it is secondary to the role of his character’s nemesis, Sister Aloysius, and therefore it doesn’t shout “lead” loudly enough to warrant a win.  Both Strong and Stuhlbarg are giving ace performances in their respective plays, but it is likely that Jeremy Strong, best known for his work in the HBO series “Succession,” will take the Tony. 


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL


The seven nominees are Shoshana Bean (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Amber Iman (“Lempicka”), Nikki M. James (“Suffs”), Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer (“Spamalot”), Kecia Lewis (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Lindsay Mendez (“Merrily We Roll Along”), and Bebe Neuwirth (“Cabaret”).


Tough call, this one.  Can’t we just hand out seven Tony Awards for these wonderful performances? I’m thinking it will be a tight race among Kecia Lewis, Lindsay Mendez, and Bebe Neuwirth. I can’t really choose from among them, so I’ll resort to a kind of logic, which goes something like this:  With two nominees from “Hell’s Kitchen,” that will water down the number of votes for Kecia Lewis. Bebe Neuwirth gets to the heart of the universal question raised by “Cabaret” when she sings the living daylights out of “What Would You Do,” but the show itself has not been showered with the kind of universal adoration that has been bestowed on “Merrily We Roll Along,” and no one wants to break up the winning trio by refusing any of the three a Tony. And let’s not forget the Sondheim factor. So, based on this analysis, I’m calling it for Lindsay Mendez.  


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY


The five nominees are Quincy Tyler Bernstine (“Doubt”), Juliana Canfield (“Stereophonic”), Celia Keenan-Bolger (“Mother Play”), Sarah Pidgeon (“Stereophonic”), and Kara Young (“Purlie Victorious”).  


Earlier, I mentioned there was one notable exception to the collective forgetfulness of voters when it comes to productions that closed months ago.  Thus, my two cents is on Kara Young, whose exceptional performance in “Purlie Victorious” as Lutiebelle Gussie Mae Jenkins was priceless.  She won the Outer Critics Circle Award and I am predicting she’ll win the Tony.  


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL


The six nominees are Roger Bart (“Back to the Future”), Joshua Boone (“The Outsiders”), Brandon Victor Dixon (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Sky Lakota-Lynch (“The Outsiders”), Daniel Radcliffe (“Merrily We Roll Along”), and Steven Skybell (“Cabaret”). 


The cheese will not stand alone, as Daniel Radcliffe joins his “old friends” from “Merrily We Roll Along” and picks up a Tony for his performance as Charlie. 


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY


The five nominees are Will Brill (“Stereophonic”), Eli Gelb (“Stereophonic”), Jim Parsons (“Mother Play”), Tom Pecinka (“Stereophonic”), and Corey Stoll (“Appropriate”).  


This makes five acting nominations for cast members of “Stereophonic” and speaks to the high quality of the production overall.  Too bad there is no Tony Award for Best Ensemble cuz the cast of “Stereophonic” would win hands down.  But there isn’t.  I think anyone would be hard pressed to pick one performance over the rest. But since “Appropriate” is such a deeply rich play with juicy roles all around, I’m predicting that Cory Stoll will win this one. 


BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL


The five nominees are Maria Friedman (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Michael Greif (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Leigh Silverman (“Suffs”), Jessica Stone (“Water for Elephants”), and Danya Taymor (“The Outsiders”).


Here we are pitting the director of the best musical revival against the director of the best new musical.  A tie would be nice, but this one is for Maria Friedman for reimagining and breathing new life into “Merrily We Roll Along.” 


BEST CHOREOGRAPHY


The five nominees are Annie-B Parson (“Here Lies Love”), Camille A. Brown (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman (“The Outsiders”), Justin Peck (“Illinoise”), and Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll (“Water for Elephants”).


This has been a great season of choreography, with each of these nominees making the art form of dance a front-and-center element of their respective shows. It’s a tough call, with such thrilling work on display. I was particularly taken with Camille A. Brown’s choreography for “Hell’s Kitchen.” The dance numbers light up the stage all on their own and play a huge part in raising the level of this show way beyond anything you might expect from a jukebox musical that isn’t “MJ”.  So kudos to Brown. Nevertheless, I expect a win for Justin Peck, who pulled out all the stops to create the choreography that, when combined with Sufjan Stevens’ songs, serves to tell the emotionally rich tapestry of tales that make up “Illinoise.”  The fact that Peck wrote the book and directed the production only serves to clinch the deal.  


BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL


The five nominees are Kristoffer Diaz (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Bekah Brunstetter (“The Notebook”), Adam Rapp and Justin Levine (“The Outsiders”), Shaina Taub (“Suffs”), and Rick Elice “Water for Elephants”). 


Three of these were adapted from novels, one was shaped around mostly existing songs, and one was an original work.  That would be “Suffs,” which does an outstanding job of telling the story of women’s suffrage movement in the U. S.  The characters are distinct, and the writing relates the history with strength and clarity.  The Tony goes to Shaina Taub for “Suffs.”   


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE WRITTEN FOR THE THEATRE


The five nominees are Adam Guettel “Days of Wine and Roses”), David Byrne and Fatboy Slim (“Here Lies Love”), Will Butler (“Stereophonic”), Shaina Taub (“Suffs”),  and Jamestown Revival & Justin Levine (“The Outsiders”). 


Personally, I love Adam Guettel’s jazzy, soaring, stirring, and altogether sublime score for “Days of Wine and Roses.” But I’m pretty sure the Tony will go Will Butler, and I’m equally happy with that.  “Stereophonic,” which is not officially a musical, could not work without Butler’s songs, so,  yes, the Tony.


BEST ORCHESTRATIONS


The six nominees are Timo Andres (“Illinoise”), Will Butler and Justin Craig (“Stereophonic”), Justine Levine, Matt Hinkley, and Jamestown Revival (“The Outsiders”), Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone (“Hell’s Kitchen”), and Jonathan Tunick (“Merrily We Roll Along”).  


Tunick is forever associated with Sondheim, and with “Merrily We Roll Along” garnering such love, a win for this might just happen (“Merrily” is Tunick’s twelfth Tony nomination, with one win under his belt – for “Titanic” in 1997).  But I think the race is a tight one, with Tunick running neck-and-neck with Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone’s orchestrations for “Hell’s Kitchen.”  In the end, turning a collection made up almost entirely of existing songs into a cohesive musical is quite a feat, so I’m thinking Kitt and Blackstone will win this one. 


BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY


The five nominees are Daniel Aukin (“Stereophonic”), Anne Kauffman (“Mary Jane”), Kenny Leon (”Purlie Victorious”), Lila Neugebauer (“Appropriate”), and Whitney White (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”). 


Here we go again.  Best New Play:  “Stereophonic” v Best Play Revival: “Appropriate.” Flip a coin?  Nah. My best guess is Daniel Aukin for the masterful ensemble piece that is “Stereophonic.” 



BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL


The seven nominees are AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian (“The Outsiders”), Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Takeshi Kata (”Water for Elephants”), David Korins (“Here Lies Love”), Riccardo Hernández and Peter Nigrini (“Lempicka”), Tim Hatley and Finn Ross (“Back to the Future”), and Tom Scutt (“Cabaret”).  


Good choices here, but I’m going to say it’s a win for Takeshi Kata’s design for “Water for Elephants,” which has to accommodate both the narrative and the many circus elements that are seamless fused into a visually thrilling whole.  


BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY


The five nominees (actually three, as you will notice) are the design collective known as dots (“Appropriate”), dots (“An Enemy of the People”), Derek McLane (“Purlie Victorious”), David Zinn (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” and David Zinn (“Stereophonic”).


Will the two nominations for dots and the two for David Zinn open the pathway for Derek McLane?  Not this time.  It’ll be David Zinn for “Stereophonic.” 


BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL


The five nominees are Dede Ayite (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Linda Cho (“The Great Gatsby”), David Israel Raynoso (“Water for Elephants”), Tom Scutt (“Cabaret”), and Paul Tazewell (“Suffs”).  


The one who best captured the style of the era in which the show is set is Linda Cho, whose award will allow “The Great Gatsby” to call itself a Tony-winning musical. 


BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY


The five (four actually, with a couple of names that will sound rather familiar by now) are the very talented and very busy Dede Ayite (“Appropriate”), Dede Ayite (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”), Enver Chakartash (“Stereophonic”), Emilio Sosa (“Purlie Victorious”), and David Zinn (“An Enemy of the People”)


Tough call among such talented designers, but I’m going with Dede Ayite for “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” a lovely mix of contemporary American and African-inspired costumes, so fitting for this show. 


BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL


The five nominees are Brandon Stirling Baker (“Illinoise”), Isabella Byrd (“Cabaret”), Natasha Kat (“Hell’s Kitchen”). Bradley King and David Bengali (“Water for Elephants”), and Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim (“The Outsiders”)


Lighting and sound are integral design elements that can have a tremendous effect on how the audience perceives the performance.  In this case, I believe that Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim’s outstanding lighting work on “The Outsiders” will take the Tony. 



BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY


The five nominees are Isabella Byrd (“An Enemy of the People”), Amith Chandrashaker (“Prayer for the French Republic”), Jiyoun Chang (“Stereophonic”), Jane Cox (“Appropriate”), and Natasha Katz (“Grey House”).


This one is between Jane Cox an Natasha Katz.  “Grey House” is all about atmosphere, and the lighting is key to providing that haunted look.  It is, however, a show that came and went without much notice way back at the start of the season.  Frankly, I’d like to see it pick up this one, but I’m thinking the Tony will go to Jane Cox for the much more successful “Appropriate,” in which the design elements work so well to support the overall production. 


BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL


The five nominees are M. L. Dogg and Cody Spencer (“Here Lies Love”), Kai Harada (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Nick Lidster for Autograph (“Cabaret”), Gareth Owen (“Hell’s Kitchen”), and Cody Spencer (“The Outsiders”). 


Can you hear me now?  Sound design has improved tremendously over the past few years.  Even so, M. L. Dogg and Cody Spencer faced some unique design challenges, as the performers in “Here Lies Love” moved all over the theater.  And yet not a word was lost.  So, yes, a Tony for this.  



BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY


The five nominees are Justin Ellington an Stefania Bulbarella (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”), Leah Gelpe (“Mary Jane”), Tom Gibbons (“Grey House”), Bray Poor and Will Pickens (“Appropriate”), and Ryan Rumery (“Stereophonic”).


When you are working on a play that takes place entirely in a recording studio, you’d better get the sound design right.  And Ryan Rumery did just that with “Stereophonic.”  Tony time!




In sum, my predictions:


Best new musical:  Hell’s Kitchen

Best revival of a musical:  Merrily We Roll Along

Best new play:  Stereophonic

Best play revival: Appropriate

Best performance by an actress in a lead role in a musical: Maleah Joi Moon

Best performance by an actress in a lead role in a play:  Sarah Paulson

Best performance by an actor in a lead role in a musical: Jonathan Groff

Best performance by an actor in a lead role in a play: Jeremy Strong

Best performance by an actress in a featured role in a musical: Lindsay Mendez

Best performance by an actress in a featured role in a play: Kara Young

Best performance by an actor in a featured role in a musical: Daniel Radcliffe

Best performance by an actor in a featured role in a play: Cory Stoll

Best direction of a musical:  Maria Friedman

Best choreography: Justin Peck

Best book of a musical:  Shaina Taub

Best original score: Will Butler

Best orchestrations:  Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone

Best direction of a play:  Daniel Aukin

Best scenic design of a musical:  Takeshi Kata

Best scenic design of a play:  David Zinn for “Stereophonic”

Best costume design of a musical:  Linda Cho

Best costume design of a play:  Dede Ayite  for “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”

Best lighting design of a musical:  Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim

Best lighting design of a play:  Jane Cox

Best sound design of a musical:  M. L. Dogg and Cody Spencer

Best sound design of a play: Ryan Rumery