Welcome to the 2024-25 Tony Awards season, one which saw 21 musicals and 21 plays opening on Broadway, along with one "special event," Ben Platt's concert residency at the Palace Theatre.
Who will win? We all will find out on June 8. Meanwhile, here are my predictions.
For what it's worth, I am not a Tony voter, but I am an Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voter, as well as the lead Broadway critic for Talkin' Broadway (talkinbroadway.com).
Of course, as a voter, I rely on my personal taste. That's not the case when it comes to predicting the Tony winners, a skill that requires guesswork with respect to how the votes will fall. Typically, my success rate lands at about 60%.
For Part I, I take a look at the creative and design elements of the musicals and plays up for awards.
Musicals (creative and design elements)
Best Book of a Musical
The nominees are:
Operation Mincemeat, book by David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts.
Buena Vista Social Club, book by Marco Ramirez.
Dead Outlaw, book by Itamar Moses.
Death Becomes Her, book by Marco Pennette.
Maybe Happy Ending, book by Will Aronson and Hue Park.
My Tony prediction:
Will Aronson and Hue Park, for Maybe Happy Ending. This sweetly offbeat little show has continued to grow in popularity ever since it opened, and it is likely to win the hearts of the Tony voters as well.
Best Original Score
The nominees are:
Dead Outlaw, music and lyrics by David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna.
Death Becomes Her, music and lyrics by Julia Mattison and Noel Carey.
Maybe Happy Ending, music and lyrics by Will Aronson and Hue Park.
Operation Mincemeat, music and lyrics by Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts.
Real Women Have Curves, music and lyrics by Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez.
My Tony Prediction:
David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna, for Dead Outlaw. Yazbek won the 2018 Tony for another quirky little show called The Band’s Visit, and I believe he’ll do it again (with a little help from his friend, guitarist Erik Della Penna).
Best Orchestrations
The nominees are:
Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time
Will Aronson, Maybe Happy Ending
Bruce Coughlin, Floyd Collins
Marco Paguia, Buena Vista Social Club
David Cullen and Andrew Lloyd Webber, Sunset Blvd.
My Tony Prediction:
Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time. The orchestrations for this are a perfect fit for the Vegas-style performances in that show.
Best Choreography
The nominees are:
Joshua Bergasse, SMASH
Camille A. Brown, Gypsy
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jerry Mitchell, BOOP! The Musical
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club
My Tony Prediction:
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club. The choreography rises to the top by fitting in so perfectly with the time and place and music of that show, whisking us to Cuba in the 1950s.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
The nominees are:
Rachel Hauck, Swept Away
Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending
Arnulfo Maldonado, Buena Vista Social Club
Derek McLane, Death Becomes Her
Derek McLane, Just in Time
My Tony Prediction:
Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending. The set design gave this show the look of a graphic novel, perfect for this charmer of a musical.
The nominees are:
Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club
Gregg Barnes, BOOP! The Musical
Clint Ramos, Maybe Happy Ending
Paul Tazewell, Death Becomes Her
Catherine Zuber, Just in Time
My Tony Prediction:
Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club. Like the choreography, the costumes whirl you back in time to 1950s Cuba and greatly enhance the overall experience.
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
The nominees are:
Jack Knowles, Sunset Blvd.
Tyler Micoleau, Buena Vista Social Club
Scott Zielinski and Ruey Horng Sun, Floyd Collins
Ben Stanton, Maybe Happy Ending
Justin Townsend, Death Becomes Her
My Tony Prediction:
Jack Knowles, Sunset Blvd. The production is almost devoid of a setting, and so the lighting carries a lot of weight when it comes to creating the noirish atmosphere, with bonus points for lighting the live video feed at the top of Act II.
Best sound design of a musical
The nominees are:
Jonathan Deans, Buena Vista Social Club
Adam Fisher, Sunset Blvd.
Peter Hylenski, Just in Time
Peter Hylenski, Maybe Happy Ending
Dan Moses Schreier, Floyd Collins
My Tony prediction:
Peter Hylenski, Just in Time. The sound design perfectly meets the demands of the production and the venue. So, it’s hats off to Peter Hylenski’s outstanding work for this musical based on the life and career of Bobby Darin.
Plays: scenic, lighting, and sound design
(I'm calling a triple play. See below).
Best Scenic Design of a Play
The nominees are:
Marsha Ginsberg, English
Rob Howell, The Hills of California
Marg Horwell and David Bergman, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Miriam Buether and 59, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Scott Pask, Good Night, and Good Luck
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Chivers, The Hills of California
Jon Clark, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Heather Gilbert and David Bengali, Good Night, and Good Luck
Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski, John Proctor is the Villain
Nick Schlieper, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Best Sound Design of a Play
Paul Arditti, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Palmer Hefferan, John Proctor is the Villain
Daniel Kluger, Good Night, and Good Luck
Nick Powell, The Hills of California
Clemence Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray
My Tony prediction:
A sweep for Stranger Things: The First Shadow.
Miriam Buether and 59, scenic design
Jon Clark, lighting design
Paul Arditti, sound design
This prequel to the popular Netflix sci-fi/horror series offers up an eyeful of scenic, lighting, projection, and sound design elements that will be hard to beat.
Best Costume Design of a Play
Brenda Abbandandolo, Good Night, and Good Luck
Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Rob Howell, The Hills of California
Holly Pierson, Oh, Mary!
Brigitte Reiffenstuel, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
My Tony prediction:
Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray. 26 costumes for Sarah Snook, each of them unique. How are you going to top that?
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NEXT UP: Awards for acting and directing
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