Tony Predictions 2025 Part III: Best Musicals, Best Plays, and Wrap-up

 Welcome to the 2024-25 Tony Awards season, one which saw 21 musicals and 21 plays opening on Broadway, along with one "special event," Ben Platt's concert residency at the Palace Theatre.  

Who will win?  We all will find out on June 8. Meanwhile, here Is Part III of my predictions -- Best Musicals, Best Plays, and Wrap-up

For what it's worth, I am not a Tony voter, but I am an Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voter,  as well as the lead Broadway critic for Talkin' Broadway (talkinbroadway.com).

Of course, as a voter, I rely on my personal taste.  That's not the case when it comes to predicting the Tony winners, a skill that requires guesswork with respect to how the votes will fall.  Typically, my success rate lands at about 60%.

For this entry, I take a look at the Tony awards for best new musical, new play, musical revival, and play revival.  At the end, there is a complete list of my predictions for all of the awards. 

For best new Broadway musical of the 2024-25 Theater Season, the nominees are:

Buena Vista Social Club

Dead Outlaw

Death Becomes Her

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat

My Tony Prediction:

Maybe Happy Ending.  This crowd-pleaser has the earmarks of a winning combination of story, song, and design elements.  

For best new Broadway play of the 2024-25 theater season, the nominees are:

English

The Hills of California

John Proctor is the Villain

Oh, Mary!

Purpose

My Tony Prediction:  

Oh, Mary!  This perfect farce never lets up for a moment.  And how brave it was to retain every bit of the downtown vibe that launched the play in the first place. 

For best Broadway musical revival of the 2024-25 theater season, the nominees are:

Floyd Collins

Gypsy

Pirates! The Penzance Musical

Sunset Blvd. 

My Tony Prediction:

Sunset Blvd.  This is a wild and woolly revival, to be sure, but it certainly is original and committed to telling the story of the descent into madness of Norma Desmond in its own take-it or leave-it way.  Its audaciousness is likely to propel it to the Tony.

For best Broadway play revival of the 2024-25 theater season, the nominees are:

Eureka Day

Romeo + Juliet

Our Town

Yellow Face

My Tony Prediction:

Eureka Day.  This sharp, very funny, and exquisitely acted play satirizes what happens when seemingly like-minded people seek consensus.  

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THE LIST

Best Book of a Musical: Maybe Happy Ending

Best Original Score: Dead Outlaw

Best Orchestrations: Just in Time

Best Choreography: Buena Vista Social Club

Best Scenic Design of a Musical: Maybe Happy Ending 

Best Costume Design of a Musical: Buena Vista Social Club

Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Sunset Blvd. 

Best Sound Design of a Musical: Just in Time

Best Scenic Design of a Play: Stranger Things

Best Lighting Design of a Play: Stranger Things

Best Sound Design of a Play: Stranger Things

Best Costume Design of a Play: The Picture of Dorian Gray

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical: Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical: Nicole Scherzinger

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play: Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical: Danny Burstein, Gypsy

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical: Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play: Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play, Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day

Best Director of a Musical: Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.

Best Director of a Play: Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain

Best New Broadway Musical: Maybe Happy Ending

Best New Broadway Play: Oh, Mary!

Best Broadway Revival of a Musical:  Sunset Blvd.

Best Broadway Revival of a Play:  Eureka Day

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And that's it. My best guesses for the winners of the 2025 Tony Awards. I'll see ya at the theatre!  Oh, and don't bet your shirt on my predictions, cuz it's anybody's guess.  

Tony Predictions 2025 Part II: Musicals and Plays -- Acting and Directing

 Welcome to the 2024-25 Tony Awards season, one which saw 21 musicals and 21 plays opening on Broadway, along with one "special event," Ben Platt's concert residency at the Palace Theatre.  

Who will win?  We all will find out on June 8. Meanwhile, here Is Part II of my predictions -- Acting and Directing 

For what it's worth, I am not a Tony voter, but I am an Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voter,  as well as the lead Broadway critic for Talkin' Broadway (talkinbroadway.com).

Of course, as a voter, I rely on my personal taste.  That's not the case when it comes to predicting the Tony winners, a skill that requires guesswork with respect to how the votes will fall.  Typically, my success rate lands at about 60%.

For this entry, I take a look at the awards for acting and directing. 

Acting:  The Musicals

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

The nominees are:

Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending

Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw

Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.

Jonathan Groff, Just in Time

James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical

Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins

My Tony Prediction:

Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending.  This show has become "the little engine that could," and I think it will carry through to help Criss rise above the other excellent performers in this category. 

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

The nominees are:

Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her

Audra McDonald, Gypsy

Jasmine Amy Rogers, BOOP! The Musical

Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.

Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her

My Tony prediction:

Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.  This unique rendition of Sunset Blvd. would not work without its star, and her performances of the show's two big numbers are definite high points, enough to tap her for the Tony. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

The nominees are:

Brooks Ashmanskas, SMASH

Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw

Danny Burstein, Gypsy

Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat

Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins

My Tony prediction: 

Danny Burstein, Gypsy.  Audra McDonald clearly owns  this revival, but Burstein turns in a wonderfully three-dimensional "Herbie" here.  

 

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

The nominees are:

Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club

Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw

Gracie Lawrence, Just in Time

Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves

Joy Woods, Gypsy

My Tony prediction:

Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club.  A resplendent performance in a resplendent show.  Tony time. 

Acting:  The Plays

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

The nominees are:

George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck

Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!

Jon Michael Hill, Purpose

Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face

Harry Lennix, Purpose

Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

My Tony prediction:

Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!  Escola nailed this Off Broadway and now on Broadway.  It's a perfect farce, and they are perfect in it. 

 

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

The nominees are:

Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California

Mia Farrow, The Roommate

LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose

Sadie Sink, John Proctor is the Villain

Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

My Tony prediction:

Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray.  One actress, 26 roles.  And even if many of them are pre-recorded, it's still quite a feat, and performed with perfection.  

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

The nominees are:

Glenn Davis, Purpose

Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor is the Villain

Francis Jue, Yellow Face

Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross

Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

My Tony Prediction:

Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary! A perfect Abe for our Mary.  Can't have one without the other, so it's Tony time for the pair. 

 

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

The nominees are:

Tala Ashe, English

Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day

Marjan Neshat, English

Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain

Kara Young, Purpose

My Tony prediction:

Kara Young, Purpose.  It looks like this outstanding actress, who received a Tony last year for her performance in Purlie Victorious, is primed to win her second one. 

Best Direction of a Musical

The nominees are:

Saheem Ali, Buena Vista Social Club

Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending

David Cromer, Dead Outlaw

Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her

Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.

My Tony Prediction:

Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.  There is nothing subtle about Lloyd's direction of this most eccentric production, but he certainly should be commended and Tony-ed for staying true to a singular vision from start to end.    

Best Direction of a Play

The nominees are:

Knud Adams, English

Sam Mendes, The Hills of California

Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!

Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain

Kip Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray

My Tony Prediction: 

Danya Taymor, John Proctor is the Villain. Taymor's direction is the polar opposite of Jamie Lloyd's bombastic look-at-me one. The performances feel as if the director used a velvet glove to guide the cast into a glorious ensemble. Thumbs up here!  

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NEXT UP:  Best play, best musical, and final comments. 

Tony Predictions 2025 Part I: Musicals and Plays -- Creative and Design Elements

Welcome to the 2024-25 Tony Awards season, one which saw 21 musicals and 21 plays opening on Broadway, along with one "special event," Ben Platt's concert residency at the Palace Theatre.  

Who will win?  We all will find out on June 8. Meanwhile, here are my predictions.

For what it's worth, I am not a Tony voter, but I am an Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voter,  as well as the lead Broadway critic for Talkin' Broadway (talkinbroadway.com).

Of course, as a voter, I rely on my personal taste.  That's not the case when it comes to predicting the Tony winners, a skill that requires guesswork with respect to how the votes will fall.  Typically, my success rate lands at about 60%.

For Part I, I take a look at the creative and design elements of the musicals and plays up for awards. 

Musicals (creative and design elements)

Best Book of a Musical

The nominees are:

Operation Mincemeat,  book by David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and  Zoë Roberts. 

Buena Vista Social Club, book by Marco Ramirez.  

Dead Outlaw, book by Itamar Moses. 

Death Becomes Her, book by Marco Pennette.  

Maybe Happy Ending, book by Will Aronson and Hue Park.  

My Tony prediction:  

Will Aronson and Hue Park, for Maybe Happy Ending.  This sweetly offbeat little show has continued to grow in popularity ever since it opened, and it is likely to win the hearts of the Tony voters as well. 

Best Original Score 

The nominees are:

Dead Outlaw, music and lyrics by David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna.

Death Becomes Her, music and lyrics by Julia Mattison and Noel Carey. 

Maybe Happy Ending, music and lyrics by Will Aronson and Hue Park. 

Operation Mincemeat, music and lyrics by Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts. 

Real Women Have Curves, music and lyrics by Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez. 

 

My Tony Prediction: 

David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna, for Dead Outlaw. Yazbek won the 2018 Tony for another quirky little show called The Band’s Visit, and I believe he’ll do it again (with a little help from his friend, guitarist Erik Della Penna). 

Best Orchestrations

The nominees are:

Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time

Will Aronson, Maybe Happy Ending

Bruce Coughlin, Floyd Collins

Marco Paguia, Buena Vista Social Club

David Cullen and Andrew Lloyd Webber, Sunset Blvd.

My Tony Prediction:

Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, Just in Time.  The orchestrations for this are a perfect fit for the Vegas-style performances in that show.  

Best Choreography

The nominees are:

Joshua Bergasse,  SMASH

Camille A. Brown, Gypsy

Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her

Jerry Mitchell, BOOP! The Musical

Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club

My Tony Prediction: 

Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club.  The choreography rises to the top by fitting in so perfectly with the time and place and music of that show, whisking us to Cuba in the 1950s.   

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

The nominees are: 

Rachel Hauck, Swept Away

Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending

Arnulfo Maldonado, Buena Vista Social Club

Derek McLane, Death Becomes Her

Derek McLane, Just in Time

My Tony Prediction: 

Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, Maybe Happy Ending. The set design gave this show the look of a graphic novel, perfect for this charmer of a musical. 

Best Costume Design of a Musical

The nominees are:

Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club

Gregg Barnes, BOOP! The Musical

Clint Ramos, Maybe Happy Ending

Paul Tazewell, Death Becomes Her

Catherine Zuber, Just in Time

My Tony Prediction: 

Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club. Like the choreography, the costumes whirl you back in time to 1950s Cuba and greatly enhance the overall experience. 

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

The nominees are: 

Jack Knowles,  Sunset Blvd.

Tyler Micoleau,  Buena Vista Social Club

Scott Zielinski and Ruey Horng Sun, Floyd Collins

Ben Stanton, Maybe Happy Ending

Justin Townsend, Death Becomes Her

My Tony Prediction:  

Jack Knowles, Sunset Blvd.  The production is almost devoid of a setting, and so the lighting carries a lot of weight when it comes to creating the noirish atmosphere, with bonus points for lighting the live video feed at the top of Act II.    

Best sound design of a musical

The nominees are:

Jonathan Deans, Buena Vista Social Club

Adam Fisher, Sunset Blvd.

Peter Hylenski, Just in Time

Peter Hylenski, Maybe Happy Ending

Dan Moses Schreier, Floyd Collins

My Tony prediction:  

Peter Hylenski, Just in Time.  The sound design perfectly meets the demands of the production and the venue.   So, it’s hats off to Peter Hylenski’s outstanding work for this musical based on the life and career of Bobby Darin. 

Plays: scenic, lighting, and sound design

(I'm calling a triple play.  See below). 

Best Scenic Design of a Play

The nominees are: 

Marsha Ginsberg, English

Rob Howell, The Hills of California

Marg Horwell and David Bergman, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Miriam Buether and 59, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Scott Pask, Good Night, and Good Luck

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Natasha Chivers, The Hills of California

Jon Clark, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Heather Gilbert and David Bengali, Good Night, and Good Luck

Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski, John Proctor is the Villain

Nick Schlieper, The Picture of Dorian Gray

 

Best Sound Design of a Play

Paul Arditti, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Palmer Hefferan, John Proctor is the Villain

Daniel Kluger, Good Night, and Good Luck

Nick Powell, The Hills of California

Clemence Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray

 

My Tony prediction:  

A sweep for Stranger Things: The First Shadow.   

Miriam Buether and 59, scenic design

Jon Clark, lighting design

Paul Arditti, sound design

 

This prequel to the popular Netflix sci-fi/horror series offers up an eyeful of scenic, lighting, projection, and sound design elements that will be hard to beat.   

 

Best Costume Design of a Play

Brenda Abbandandolo, Good Night, and Good Luck

Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Rob Howell, The Hills of California

Holly Pierson, Oh, Mary!

Brigitte Reiffenstuel, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

My Tony prediction:  

Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray.  26 costumes for Sarah Snook, each of them unique. How are you going to top that?

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NEXT UP:  Awards for acting and directing