THE TONY AWARDS: Predicting the 2016 Winners

It's been a long time since one show has dominated the Tony Awards nominations and caused such a box office frenzy the way that Hamilton has done this year. I saw and wrote about the show during its initial run at the Public Theater [click here to link], but I've not seen it on Broadway, as I long ago sold my first-born child for a down-payment on a New York co-op and thus can't afford a ticket.  

Anyone predicting the winners for 2016 probably does not need a crystal ball; just pick Hamilton in any category for which it received a nomination. Still, here are my predictions, and the nominees I would vote for if I were a Tony voter.  

Best Play

Eclipsed

The Father

The Humans

King Charles III

Prediction: The Humans

I would vote for: The Humans

Best Musical

Bright Star

Hamilton

School of Rock

Shuffle Along

Waitress

Prediction: Hamilton 

I would vote for: Hamilton

Best Revival of a Play

The Crucible

A View From The Bridge

Blackbird

Long Day's Journey Into Night

Noises Off

Prediction: A View From The Bridge

I would vote for: The Crucible

Best Revival of a Musical

The Color Purple

Fiddler on the Roof

She Loves Me

Spring Awakening

Prediction: The Color Purple

I would vote for: Spring Awakening

Best Book of a Musical

Bright Star

Hamilton

School of Rock

Shuffle Along

Prediction: Hamilton

I would vote for: Hamilton

Best Original Score

Bright Star

Hamilton

School of Rock

Waitress

Prediction: Hamilton

I would vote for: Hamilton

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role/Play

Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Jeff Daniels, Blackbird

Frank Langella, The Father

Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III

Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

Prediction:  Frank Langella

I would vote for Tim Pigott-Smith

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role/Play

Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Laurie Metcalf, Misery

Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed

Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible

Michelle Williams, Blackbird

Prediction: Jessica Lange

I would vote for: Sophie Okonedo

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role/Musical

Alex Brightman, School of Rock

Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof

Zachary Levi, She Loves Me

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Prediction: Lin-Manuel Miranda

I would vote for: Alex Brightman

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role/Musical

Laura Benanti, She Loves Me

Carmen Cusack Bright Star

Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple

Jessie Mueller, Waitress

Phillipa Soo, Hamilton

Prediction: Cynthia Erivo
I would vote for: Cynthia Erivo

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role/Play

Reed Birney, The Humans

Bill Camp, The Crucible

David Furr, Noises Off

Richard Goulding, King Charles III

Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Prediction:  Michael Shannon
I would vote for: Reed Birney

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role/Play

Pascale Armand, Eclipsed

Megan Hilty, Noises Off

Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

Andrea Martin, Noises Off

Saigon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

Prediction: Jayne Houdyshell
I would vote for: Jayne Houdyshell

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role/Musical

Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along

Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress

Johnathan Groff, Hamilton

Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Prediction:  Daveed Diggs
I would vote for:  Daveed Diggs

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role/Musical

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton

Jane Krakowski, She Love Me

Jennifer Simard, Disaster

Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along

Prediction:  Renée Elise Goldsberry
I would vote for:  Renée Elise Goldsberry

Best Scenic Design/Play

Beowulf Boritt, Thérèse Raquin

Christopher Oram, Hughie

Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge

David Zinn, The Humans

Prediction: Jan Versweyveld
I would vote for: Christopher Oram

Best Scenic Design/Musical

Es Devlin and Finn Ross, American Psycho
David Korins, Hamilton
Santo Loquasto, Shuffle Along
David Rockwell, She Loves Me

Prediction: David Korins
I would vote for: David Rockwell

Best Costume Design/Play

Jane Greenwood, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Michael Krass, Noises Off
Clint Ramos, Eclipsed

Tom Scutt, King Charles III

Prediction: Tom Scutt
I would vote for: Clint Ramos

Best Costume Design/Musical

Gregg Barnes, Tuck Everlasting
Jeff Mahshie, She Loves Me
Ann Roth, Shuffle Along
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton

Prediction:  Paul Tazewell
I would vote for: Paul Tazewell

Best Lighting Design/Play

Natasha Katz, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Justin Townsend, The Humans
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's The Crucible

Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge

Prediction: Justin Townsend
I would vote for: Justin Townsend

Best Lighting Design/Musical

Howell Binkley, Hamilton
Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along
Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening
Justin Townsend, American Psycho

Prediction: Justin Townsend
I would vote for Justin Townsend

Best Direction of a Play

Rupert Goold, King Charles III

Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Joe Mantello, The Humans

Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed

Ivo van Hove, A View from the Bridge

Prediction: Ivo van Hove
I would vote for: Joe Mantello

Best Direction of a Musical

Michael Arden, Spring Awakening

John Doyle, The Color Purple

Scott Ellis, She Loves Me

Thomas Kail, Hamlton

George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

Prediction: Thomas Kail
I would vote for: Michael Arden

Best Choreography

Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton
Savion Glover, Shuffle Along
Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet!

Prediction: Andy Blankenbuehler
I would vote for: Andy Blankenbuehler

Best Orchestrations

August Eriksmoen, Bright Star
Larry Hochman, She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton
Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along

Prediction:  Alex Lacamoire
I would vote for: Alex Lacamoire

* * *

Congratulations to these already-announced recipients of awards and honors in non-competitive categories:

For Lifetime Achievement in the Theatre

Sheldon Harnick

Marshall W. Mason

Special Tony Award

National Endowment for the Arts

Miles Wilkin

Regional Theatre Tony Award

Paper Mill Playhouse

Millburn, NJ

Isabelle Stevenson Tony Award

Brian Stokes Mitchell

Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre

Seth Gelblum

Joan Lader

Sally Ann Parsons

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